← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Dickinson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 78% | 74% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 17% | 7.50 | value: +29% |
| Motherwell win | 8% | 8% | 15.00 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Motherwell +2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Celtic +2 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 76% | 1.41 | value: +6% |
| Under | 32% | 24% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand