← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Graham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 38% | 36% | 2.54 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 33% | 35% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Dundee United +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Joe Newell · Hibernian |
| 20' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Dundee United |
| 40' | 🟨 | Josef Bursik · Hibernian |
| 43' | ⚽ | Warren O'Hora · Hibernian |
| 72' | ⚽ | Dwight Gayle · Hibernian |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jordan Obita · Hibernian |
| 83' | 🟨 | David Babunski · Dundee United |
| 85' | 🟨 | Joe Newell · Hibernian |
| 85' | 🟥 | Joe Newell · Hibernian |
| 87' | 🟨 | Meshack Ubochioma · Dundee United |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park |
| ⚽ |
| Luca Stephenson · Dundee United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Meshack Ubochioma · Dundee United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 598.00 | 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1424.41 | 1463.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.93 | -4.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.62 |
| league points | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |