← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. McDermid
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 52% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.68 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 22% | 21% | 4.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell −0.75 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Hibernian −0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 53% | 1.97 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Nectarios Triantis · Hibernian |
| 22' | 🟨 | Davor Zdravkovski · Motherwell |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ewan Wilson · Motherwell |
| 47' | 🟨 | Marvin Ekpiteta · Hibernian |
| 56' | 🟨 | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 56' | ⚽ | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos · Motherwell |
| 59' | ⚽ | Junior Hoilett · Hibernian |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nectarios Triantis · Hibernian |
| 77' | 🟥 | Nectarios Triantis · Hibernian |
| 79' | ⚽ | Andy Halliday · Motherwell |
| 83' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Tom Sparrow · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hyeok-kyu Kwon · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 157.00 | 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1474.32 | 1490.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.04 | 26.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | -1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |