← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Wilson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 44% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 40% | 3.30 | value: +34% |
| St Mirren win | 27% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| St Mirren −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Killian Phillips · St Mirren |
| 17' | 🟨 | Marcus Fraser · St Mirren |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Lennon Miller · Motherwell |
| 36' | 🟨 | Toyosi Olusanya · St Mirren |
| 43' | 🟨 | Scott Tanser · St Mirren |
| 44' | ⚽ | Lennon Miller · Motherwell |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stephen O'Donnell · Motherwell |
| 47' | 🟥 | Dan Casey · Motherwell |
| 48' | 🟨 | Andy Halliday · Motherwell |
| 51' | 🟨 | Kofi Balmer · Motherwell |
| 61' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Scott Tanser · St Mirren |
| 61' | 🟥 | Scott Tanser · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tony Watt · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 605.00 | 970.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1482.30 | 1487.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.88 | -6.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 45.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| league points | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |