← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. McFarlane
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross County win | 51% | 42% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +7% |
| St Johnstone win | 22% | 29% | 4.59 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ross County −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| St Johnstone −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Ronan Hale · Ross County |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jason Holt · St Johnstone |
| 44' | ⚽ | Drey Wright · St Johnstone |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kacper Łopata · Ross County |
| 60' | ⚽ | Nicky Clark · St Johnstone |
| 73' | 🟨 | Sven Sprangler · St Johnstone |
| 80' | 🟨 | Makenzie Kirk · St Johnstone |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ryan Leak · Ross County |
| 84' | ⚽ | Nicky Clark · St Johnstone |
| 87' | ⚽ | Alex Samuel · Ross County |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ross County | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Global Energy Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Cameron MacPherson · St Johnstone |
| 90' | ⚽ | Akil Wright · Ross County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 233.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1378.93 | 1371.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.89 | -12.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.91 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |