← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 63% | 74% | 1.53 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 21% | 15% | 4.61 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 16% | 11% | 6.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers +1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Dundee United +1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 53% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 47% | 2.28 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Tom Lawrence · Rangers |
| 19' | 🟨 | Kristijan Trapanovski · Dundee United |
| 19' | 🟨 | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 33' | 🟨 | Declan Gallagher · Dundee United |
| 44' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Adegboyega · Dundee United |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jack Butland · Rangers |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ross Graham · Dundee United |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dujon Sterling · Rangers |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jefté · Rangers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nedim Bajrami · Rangers |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park |
| 🟨 |
| Nicolas Raskin · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 564.00 | 350.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1409.57 | 1786.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.68 | -14.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 2.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 13.88 | 13.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.11 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |