← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. McDermid
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 39% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 31% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| St Mirren −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 47% | 2.35 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Toyosi Olusanya · St Mirren |
| 11' | ⚽ | Marley Watkins · Kilmarnock |
| 16' | 🟨 | Mikael Mandron · St Mirren |
| 21' | 🟨 | Corrie Ndaba · Kilmarnock |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark O'Hara · St Mirren |
| 45' | 🟥 | Joe Wright · Kilmarnock |
| 47' | 🟨 | Richard Taylor · St Mirren |
| 65' | 🟨 | Liam Polworth · Kilmarnock |
| 70' | ⚽ (og) | Jonah Ayunga · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| coach days | 956.00 | 987.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1483.67 | 1506.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.45 | -5.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 59.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -2.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |