← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Graham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 57% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Motherwell −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Sivert Heltne Nilsen · Aberdeen |
| 23' | 🟨 | Stephen O'Donnell · Motherwell |
| 23' | 🟨 | Davor Zdravkovski · Motherwell |
| 27' | ⚽ | Pape Habib Gueye · Aberdeen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Zach Robinson · Motherwell |
| 64' | 🟨 | Slobodan Rubežić · Aberdeen |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jack Vale · Motherwell |
| 71' | 🟨 | Pape Habib Gueye · Aberdeen |
| 80' | ⚽ | Pape Habib Gueye · Aberdeen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Paul McGinn · Motherwell |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Moses Ebiye · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vicente Besuijen · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 105.00 | 591.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1545.83 | 1489.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.53 | 6.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 13.89 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |