← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Steven
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Dundee win | 28% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee −0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Hibernian −0.5 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Scott Tiffoney · Dundee |
| 34' | 🟨 | Simon Murray · Dundee |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rudi Allan Molotnikov · Hibernian |
| 44' | 🟨 | Billy Koumetio · Dundee |
| 45' | ⚽ | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lewis Miller · Hibernian |
| 56' | 🟨 | Joe Newell · Hibernian |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ziyad Larkeche · Dundee |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jordan McGhee · Dundee |
| 72' | ⚽ | Kieron Bowie · Hibernian |
| 79' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 88' | ⚽ | Simon Murray · Dundee |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 115.00 | 481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1467.22 | 1436.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.96 | 13.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 13.10 | 13.90 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |