← Scottish Premiership 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Graham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 59% | 47% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +23% |
| St Johnstone win | 18% | 24% | 5.76 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock −0.75 | 55% | 1.78 |
| St Johnstone −0.75 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 48% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 52% | 2.05 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Joe Wright · Kilmarnock |
| 3' | ⚽ | Adama Sidibeh · St Johnstone |
| 16' | 🟨 | Joe Wright · Kilmarnock |
| 16' | 🟥 | Joe Wright · Kilmarnock |
| 29' | 🟨 | Matthew Smith · St Johnstone |
| 33' | ⚽ | Adama Sidibeh · St Johnstone |
| 47' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 55' | 🟨 | Cameron MacPherson · St Johnstone |
| 69' | 🟨 | Lewis Neilson · St Johnstone |
| 75' | 🟨 | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka · St Johnstone |
| 82' | 🟨 | Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka · St Johnstone |
| 83' | 🟨 | Matthew Kennedy · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 953.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1527.18 | 1376.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.18 | -11.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 29.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 2.83 | 5.79 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -3.24 | -1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.53 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |