← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Wed, May 15, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 73% | 67% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 20% | 6.25 | value: +24% |
| Kilmarnock win | 11% | 14% | 9.50 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kilmarnock +1.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Celtic +1.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 62% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 38% | 3.04 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 30 |
| 2 | On target | 12 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |