← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Clancy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross County win | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 29% | 32% | 3.39 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ross County −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Motherwell −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | value: +3% |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Blair Spittal · Motherwell |
| 14' | ⚽ | Simon Murray · Ross County |
| 40' | ⚽ | Paul McGinn · Motherwell |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Reid · Ross County |
| 47' | 🟨 | Loick Ayina · Ross County |
| 57' | 🟨 | Georgie Gent · Motherwell |
| 71' | 🟨 | Davor Zdravkovski · Motherwell |
| 82' | ⚽ | Blair Spittal · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Baldwin · Ross County |
| 90' | ⚽ | Davor Zdravkovski · Motherwell |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ross County | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Global Energy Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Harrison Paton · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 100.00 | 465.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1387.15 | 1486.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.74 | 7.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 33.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 27.52 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |