← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 81% | 83% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 8.00 | fair |
| Livingston win | 7% | 7% | 15.00 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Celtic +2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Livingston +2 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 75% | 1.43 | value: +8% |
| Under | 33% | 25% | 2.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 10 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand