← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Hardie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 46% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.16 | fair |
| St Mirren win | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Kilmarnock −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 57% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 43% | 2.70 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Charles Dunne · St Mirren |
| 39' | ⚽ | Mikael Mandron · St Mirren |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mark O'Hara · St Mirren |
| 61' | ⚽ | Kyle Vassell · Kilmarnock |
| 63' | 🟨 | Liam Donnelly · Kilmarnock |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marley Watkins · Kilmarnock |
| 73' | ⚽ | Kyle Vassell · Kilmarnock |
| 75' | 🟨 | Matthew Kennedy · Kilmarnock |
| 79' | ⚽ | David Watson · Kilmarnock |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |
| 🟨 |
| David Watson · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 805.00 | 774.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1508.20 | 1502.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.06 | 11.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 41.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |