← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Steven
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 39% | 36% | 2.47 | fair |
| Dundee win | 33% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Kilmarnock +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | Will Dennis · Dundee |
| 35' | ⚽ | Marley Watkins · Kilmarnock |
| 39' | 🟨 | Owen Beck · Dundee |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kyle Vassell · Kilmarnock |
| 60' | 🟥 | Lewis Mayo · Kilmarnock |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Luke McCowan · Dundee |
| 67' | 🟨 | Corrie Ndaba · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke McCowan · Dundee |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Donnelly · Dundee |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin van Veen · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 306.00 |
| 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1421.68 | 1508.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.45 | 22.62 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.79 |
| league points | 32.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |