← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Wed, Feb 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. McDermid
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 84% | 86% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 9.66 | fair |
| Dundee win | 5% | 3% | 22.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic −2.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Dundee −2.25 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 68% | 1.29 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 32% | 3.72 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Owen Beck · Dundee |
| 7' | ⚽ | Cameron Carter-Vickers · Celtic |
| 18' | ⚽ | Adam Idah · Celtic |
| 22' | ⚽ | Matt O'Riley · Celtic |
| 30' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 36' | ⚽ | Greg Taylor · Celtic |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adam Idah · Celtic |
| 45' | 🟨 | Finlay Robertson · Dundee |
| 45' | ⚽ | Callum McGregor · Celtic |
| 48' | 🟨 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 63' | ⚽ |
| 6 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| 76' | 🟨 | Finlay Robertson · Dundee |
| 76' | 🟥 | Finlay Robertson · Dundee |
| 84' | ⚽ | Michael Mellon · Dundee |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 242.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 6.34 | 3.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1832.88 | 1424.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.27 | -5.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 65.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.32 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.00 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.04 | — |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.52 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |