← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Wed, Feb 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Clancy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 48% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 25% | 26% | 4.09 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Aberdeen −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 51% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Thelonius Bair · Motherwell |
| 22' | ⚽ | Thelonius Bair · Motherwell |
| 26' | ⚽ | Adam Devine · Motherwell |
| 31' | ⚽ | Duk · Aberdeen |
| 37' | ⚽ | Stefan Gartenmann · Aberdeen |
| 50' | ⚽ | Duk · Aberdeen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Sam Nicholson · Motherwell |
| 83' | 🟨 | Angus MacDonald · Aberdeen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Paul McGinn · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| Liam Kelly · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calum Butcher · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 13.00 | 378.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.85 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1505.39 | 1465.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.70 | 26.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 63.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.99 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |