← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Tue, Jan 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Graham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 55% | 61% | 1.77 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Dundee win | 20% | 15% | 4.94 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hearts −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.03 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Jordan McGhee · Dundee |
| 38' | ⚽ | Lyall Cameron · Dundee |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jordan McGhee · Dundee |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dara Costelloe · Dundee |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dexter Lembikisa · Hearts |
| 57' | ⚽ | Calem Nieuwenhof · Hearts |
| 60' | 🟨 | Amadou Bakayoko · Dundee |
| 65' | 🟨 | Owen Dodgson · Dundee |
| 74' | ⚽ | Dexter Lembikisa · Hearts |
| 77' | 🟨 | Curtis Main · Dundee |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lee Ashcroft · Dundee |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| 86' | ⚽ | Yutaro Oda · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 144.00 |
| 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1562.44 | 1412.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.95 | 13.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 21.20 | 24.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.59 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.79 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |