← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Tue, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. McDermid
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 40% | 44% | 2.49 | value: +9% |
| Ross County win | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ross County +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Aberdeen +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 50% | 2.08 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Jamie McGrath · Aberdeen |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jamie McGrath · Aberdeen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jack Baldwin · Ross County |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Leak · Ross County |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dante Polvara · Aberdeen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Connor Barron · Aberdeen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ben Purrington · Ross County |
| 80' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jay Henderson · Ross County |
| 87' | 🟨 | Yan Dhanda · Ross County |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ross County | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Global Energy Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Jack Baldwin · Ross County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicky Devlin · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 62.00 | 700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 4.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1410.88 | 1500.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.25 | -1.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |