← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Graham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 39% | 38% | 2.46 | fair |
| Hearts win | 33% | 35% | 3.01 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Aberdeen −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 46% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 33' | 🟨 | Calem Nieuwenhof · Hearts |
| 41' | 🟨 | Alex Lowry · Hearts |
| 53' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Stefan Gartenmann · Aberdeen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Beni Baningime · Hearts |
| 65' | 🟨 | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Frankie Kent · Hearts |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kye Rowles · Hearts |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jamie McGrath · Aberdeen |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| Aidan Denholm · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leighton Clarkson · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 676.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1494.89 | 1528.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.10 | 27.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.41 | 26.23 |
| state index | -0.96 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |