← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Snedden
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 42% | 38% | 2.37 | fair |
| Dundee win | 30% | 35% | 3.26 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.34 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Motherwell −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 53% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 47% | 2.22 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Mika Biereth · Motherwell |
| 30' | ⚽ | Lyall Cameron · Dundee |
| 34' | ⚽ | Owen Beck · Dundee |
| 44' | 🟨 | Calum Butcher · Motherwell |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dan Casey · Motherwell |
| 68' | ⚽ | Bevis Mugabi · Motherwell |
| 72' | 🟥 | Harrison Paton · Motherwell |
| 80' | 🟨 | Malachi Boateng · Dundee |
| 88' | ⚽ | Zach Robinson · Dundee |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Wilkinson · Motherwell |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Luke McCowan · Dundee |
| 90' | ⚽ | Conor Wilkinson · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 304.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1464.15 | 1398.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.98 | 38.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.29 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.85 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |