← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Wed, Nov 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Scott
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 44% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.26 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kilmarnock +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| St Johnstone +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand