← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Wed, Nov 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Steven
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 38% | 38% | 2.65 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 33% | 31% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Aberdeen +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 48% | 2.22 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Jamie McGrath · Aberdeen |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nicky Devlin · Aberdeen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Calum Butcher · Motherwell |
| 52' | 🟨 | Conor Wilkinson · Motherwell |
| 54' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Motherwell |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mika Biereth · Motherwell |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jamie McGrath · Aberdeen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Liam Kelly · Motherwell |
| 74' | ⚽ | Duk · Aberdeen |
| 78' | ⚽ | Thelonius Bair · Motherwell |
| 87' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Kelle Roos · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davor Zdravkovski · Motherwell |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mika Biereth · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 273.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1496.50 | 1494.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.34 | -3.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 4.24 | 3.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 26.00 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |