← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Grainger
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 50% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Ross County win | 23% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Ross County −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.08 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Scott Allardice · Ross County |
| 33' | 🟨 | Victor Loturi · Ross County |
| 65' | ⚽ | Eamonn Brophy · Ross County |
| 70' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Motherwell |
| 73' | ⚽ | Simon Murray · Ross County |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Mika Biereth · Motherwell |
| 83' | ⚽ | Victor Loturi · Ross County |
| 85' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 88' | ⚽ | Conor Wilkinson · Motherwell |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luca Ross · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Ross County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| coach days | 269.00 | 910.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1500.64 | 1407.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.93 | -10.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 59.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | -1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 26.77 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |