← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 75% | 78% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 11% | 6.12 | fair |
| Livingston win | 9% | 10% | 11.53 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Livingston +1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Luiyi de Lucas · Livingston |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Reo Hatate · Celtic |
| 22' | 🟨 | Alistair Johnston · Celtic |
| 26' | 🟨 | Liam Scales · Celtic |
| 28' | 🟥 | Joe Hart · Celtic |
| 48' | ⚽ | Matt O'Riley · Celtic |
| 66' | 🟨 | Andrew Shinnie · Livingston |
| 70' | 🟨 | Steven Bradley · Livingston |
| 74' | 🟨 | Samson Lawal · Livingston |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tom Parkes · Livingston |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Tony Macaroni Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1056.00 | 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 5.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1433.78 | 1850.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.83 | 11.69 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | 1.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.20 | 1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.89 |
| state index | -0.29 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |