← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Dickinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 37% | 33% | 2.72 | fair |
| Hibernian win | 33% | 36% | 2.86 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hibernian +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (og) | Will Dennis · Hibernian |
| 24' | 🟨 | Lewis Miller · Hibernian |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kyle Vassell · Kilmarnock |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bradley Lyons · Kilmarnock |
| 54' | 🟨 | William Fish · Hibernian |
| 59' | ⚽ | Dylan Vente · Hibernian |
| 61' | ⚽ | Kyle Vassell · Kilmarnock |
| 68' | 🟨 | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
| 79' | ⚽ | Joe Wright · Kilmarnock |
| 81' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |
| 🟨 |
| Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Magennis · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Obita · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 623.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1440.12 | 1507.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.82 | -16.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 45.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.52 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.67 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |