← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Graham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 35% | 41% | 2.78 | value: +15% |
| Kilmarnock win | 34% | 29% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Kilmarnock +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 39% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Marley Watkins · Kilmarnock |
| 32' | 🟨 | Marley Watkins · Kilmarnock |
| 43' | 🟨 | Stephen O'Donnell · Motherwell |
| 52' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Motherwell |
| 57' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 59' | ⚽ | Dan Casey · Motherwell |
| 66' | 🟨 | Harrison Paton · Motherwell |
| 66' | 🟨 | Robbie Deas · Kilmarnock |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dan Casey · Motherwell |
| 73' | 🟨 | David Watson · Kilmarnock |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Paul McGinn · Motherwell |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harrison Paton · Motherwell |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 206.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1513.60 | 1459.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.61 | 41.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |