← Scottish Premiership 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Napier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Livingston win | 21% | 21% | 4.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston −0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Hibernian −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 49% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 51% | 2.03 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Joe Newell · Hibernian |
| 8' | ⚽ (og) | Jordan Obita · Livingston |
| 15' | 🟨 | Christian Doidge · Hibernian |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kurtis Guthrie · Livingston |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jamie Brandon · Livingston |
| 61' | ⚽ | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 63' | ⚽ | Bruce Anderson · Livingston |
| 75' | ⚽ | Mohammed Sangare · Livingston |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mohammed Sangare · Livingston |
| 79' | 🟨 | Shamal George · Livingston |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 25.00 | 1028.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1508.83 | 1418.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.50 | -5.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.79 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.50 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |