← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Don Robertson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 44% | 45% | 2.22 | fair |
| Hibernian win | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hibernian −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 62% | 1.72 | value: +7% |
| Under | 43% | 38% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Yutaro Oda · Hearts |
| 9' | 🟨 | James Hill · Hearts |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Hibernian |
| 24' | 🟨 | Lewis Stevenson · Hibernian |
| 29' | 🟥 | Alex Cochrane · Hearts |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Hibernian |
| 63' | 🟨 | Christopher Cadden · Hibernian |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Atkinson · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Devlin · Hibernian |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| 🟨 |
| Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 56.00 | 391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1527.80 | 1533.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.90 | 29.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 53.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |