← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Wed, May 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 70% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.64 | fair |
| Hearts win | 13% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Rangers −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 63% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 37% | 2.79 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 37' | 🟨 | Allan McGregor · Rangers |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 45' | ⚽ | Todd Cantwell · Rangers |
| 47' | ⚽ | Fashion Sakala · Rangers |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rıdvan Yılmaz · Rangers |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kye Rowles · Hearts |
| 78' | 🟨 | Michael Smith · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Garang Kuol · Hearts |
| 90' | ⚽ | Garang Kuol · Hearts |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rangers | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ibrox Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1853.97 | 1513.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.91 | 9.32 |
| eye test v1 | 1.54 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| league points | 88.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 3.32 | 4.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.07 | — |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |