← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Wed, May 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: K Clancy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 57% | 70% | 1.68 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.24 | fair |
| Hibernian win | 20% | 10% | 5.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +1 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Celtic +1 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Reo Hatate · Celtic |
| 44' | 🟨 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kevin Nisbet · Hibernian |
| 52' | ⚽ | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 58' | ⚽ | Hyeon-gyu Oh · Celtic |
| 67' | 🟨 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 67' | 🟥 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Hibernian |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tony Ralston · Celtic |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Kevin Nisbet · Hibernian |
| 80' | ⚽ | Thody Elie Youan · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Alexandro Bernabei · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 388.00 |
| 722.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 4.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1504.69 | 1859.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.91 | -27.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 48.00 | 96.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 74.00 |
| rest days | 3.32 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | 2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.22 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 2.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |