← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Dickinson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 37% | 41% | 2.61 | value: +6% |
| St Mirren win | 34% | 30% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| St Mirren +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 48% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 52% | 2.11 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Kye Rowles · Hearts |
| 23' | 🟨 | Richard Taylor · St Mirren |
| 29' | 🟨 | Greg Kiltie · St Mirren |
| 36' | ⚽ | Joe Shaughnessy · St Mirren |
| 44' | 🟨 | Cameron Devlin · Hearts |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ryan Strain · St Mirren |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Atkinson · Hearts |
| 73' | ⚽ | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 77' | 🟥 | Peter Haring · Hearts |
| 80' | 🟨 | Orestis Kiomourtzoglou · Hearts |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lawrence Shankland · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 466.00 |
| 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1477.07 | 1503.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.89 | -32.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 45.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| league points | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.23 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.45 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |