← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Munro, Scotland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 52% | 44% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
| Livingston win | 21% | 29% | 4.81 | value: +39% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kilmarnock −0.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Livingston −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.26 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |