← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: John Beaton, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United win | 42% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| Ross County win | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ross County −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Dundee United −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 44% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Jordan White · Ross County |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamie McGrath · Dundee United |
| 43' | 🟨 | Yan Dhanda · Ross County |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alex Samuel · Ross County |
| 51' | 🟨 | Connor Randall · Ross County |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jordan White · Ross County |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jordan White · Ross County |
| 80' | 🟨 | Scott McMann · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aziz Behich · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan White · Ross County |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Ross County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
| 🟨 |
| Nohan Kenneh · Ross County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 73.00 | 742.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1431.83 | 1409.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.61 | 10.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 54.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.71 | -2.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |