← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Don Robertson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 55% | 60% | 1.78 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.97 | fair |
| Ross County win | 20% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ross County −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hearts −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 43% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Alex Cochrane · Hearts |
| 22' | ⚽ | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 28' | ⚽ | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 38' | 🟨 | Connor Randall · Ross County |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 55' | 🟨 | Josh Stones · Ross County |
| 57' | ⚽ | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Owura Edwards · Ross County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Orestis Kiomourtzoglou · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Tillson · |
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Ross County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 21.00 |
| 721.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1495.57 | 1406.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -61.52 | -16.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 45.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 53.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -2.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.00 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |