← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 16, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: David Dickinson, Scotland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 77% | 83% | 1.25 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 15% | 10% | 6.66 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 8% | 7% | 13.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kilmarnock +2 | 54% | 1.76 |
| Celtic +2 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 58% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |