← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Kevin Clancy, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 56% | 48% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.25 | value: +19% |
| Rangers win | 20% | 24% | 5.00 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic −0.75 | 52% | 1.96 |
| Rangers −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.36 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Cameron Carter-Vickers · Celtic |
| 26' | ⚽ | Kyogo Furuhashi · Celtic |
| 39' | 🟨 | Callum McGregor · Celtic |
| 39' | 🟨 | Nicolas Raskin · Rangers |
| 44' | 🟨 | Matt O'Riley · Celtic |
| 45' | 🟨 | Todd Cantwell · Rangers |
| 45' | ⚽ | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 47' | 🟨 | Aaron Mooy · Celtic |
| 62' | ⚽ | Kyogo Furuhashi · Celtic |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jota · Celtic |
| 78' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| James Tavernier · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 676.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.82 |
| elo | 1887.34 | 1869.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.20 | 18.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.84 | 2.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 85.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 71.20 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.83 | 2.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 19.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.00 | 24.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.79 | 2.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 8.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 8.80 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 29.28 |
| state index | 1.85 | 1.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.57 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |