← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Colin Steven, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 42% | 41% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 29% | 30% | 3.53 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Aberdeen +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟥 | Andy Considine · St Johnstone |
| 17' | 🟨 | Zak Rudden · St Johnstone |
| 30' | ⚽ (og) | Remi Matthews · Aberdeen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Graham Carey · St Johnstone |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ryan McGowan · St Johnstone |
| 85' | 🟨 | Leighton Clarkson · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Johnstone | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | McDiarmid Park |
| coach days | 5630.00 | 424.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1437.72 | 1495.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.54 | 53.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.71 | -1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 26.34 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |