← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Steven McLean, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 86% | 84% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.74 | fair |
| Hibernian win | 4% | 8% | 26.88 | value: +104% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic −2.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Hibernian −2.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 70% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 24' | 🟨 | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 24' | 🟥 | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 51' | 🟨 | Paul Hanlon · Hibernian |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Jota · Celtic |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marijan Čabraja · Hibernian |
| 81' | ⚽ | Hyeon-gyu Oh · Celtic |
| 82' | 🟨 | Hyeon-gyu Oh · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sead Hakšabanović · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 35 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 15 | Corners | 0 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 655.00 |
| 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1874.85 | 1526.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.38 | 33.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 79.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 9.80 | 9.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.82 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.72 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.39 | — |
| state index | 1.88 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.27 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |