← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Nick Walsh, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 74% | 66% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.84 | value: +3% |
| Motherwell win | 9% | 17% | 11.39 | value: +88% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Motherwell +1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 54% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 46% | 2.36 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Kevin van Veen · Motherwell |
| 20' | 🟨 | Dan Casey · Motherwell |
| 22' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 23' | ⚽ | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Jack · Rangers |
| 47' | ⚽ | Fashion Sakala · Rangers |
| 59' | ⚽ | Bevis Mugabi · Motherwell |
| 62' | ⚽ | Todd Cantwell · Rangers |
| 69' | ⚽ | Malik Tillman · Rangers |
| 76' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 76' | 🟥 | Callum Slattery · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 28 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fir Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 45.00 |
| 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.79 |
| elo | 1443.67 | 1853.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.25 | 23.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 2.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 9.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 16.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 22.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.24 | 1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.07 |
| state index | 0.13 | 1.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |