← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Graham, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 38% | 39% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.12 | value: +7% |
| Livingston win | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston +0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Hibernian +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 57% | 1.59 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 43% | 2.50 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Joel Nouble · Livingston |
| 28' | ⚽ | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 37' | ⚽ | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 52' | 🟥 | Jack Fitzwater · Livingston |
| 60' | 🟨 | Cristian Montano · Livingston |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Stephane Omeonga · Hibernian |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nicky Devlin · Livingston |
| 73' | 🟨 | Morgan Boyes · Livingston |
| 73' | 🟨 | CJ Egan-Riley · Hibernian |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kevin Nisbet · Hibernian |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Tony Macaroni Arena |
| 🟨 |
| James Jeggo · Hibernian |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mykola Kukharevych · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 853.00 | 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1504.53 | 1512.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.61 | 35.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 35.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.33 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |