← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nick Walsh, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 56% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 4.02 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 19% | 24% | 5.18 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Dundee United −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Steven Fletcher · Dundee United |
| 13' | 🟨 | Peter Pawlett · Dundee United |
| 22' | 🟨 | Craig Sibbald · Dundee United |
| 29' | 🟥 | Ryan Edwards · Dundee United |
| 48' | 🟨 | Stephen Humphrys · Hearts |
| 71' | ⚽ | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
| 77' | ⚽ | Alex Cochrane · Hearts |
| 78' | 🟨 | Stephen Kingsley · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Garang Kuol · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| 🟨 |
| Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟥 | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1191.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1558.12 | 1453.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.45 | -4.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 69.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |