← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Clancy, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 51% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 22% | 28% | 4.34 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Motherwell −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +4% |
| Over | 49% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Sean Goss · Motherwell |
| 42' | ⚽ | Duk · Aberdeen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonathan Obika · Motherwell |
| 50' | 🟨 | Stephen O'Donnell · Motherwell |
| 64' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 69' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Aberdeen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Matthew Kennedy · Aberdeen |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Kevin van Veen · Motherwell |
| 77' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Leighton Clarkson · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 368.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1438.92 | 1406.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.31 | -35.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| league points | 29.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -1.06 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |