← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Wed, Feb 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Irvine
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 46% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| St Mirren win | 25% | 23% | 3.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren −0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Aberdeen −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟥 | Ross McCrorie · Aberdeen |
| 13' | 🟨 | Angus MacDonald · Aberdeen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Charles Dunne · St Mirren |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · Aberdeen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Alex Greive · St Mirren |
| 37' | 🟨 | Duk · Aberdeen |
| 57' | ⚽ | Curtis Main · St Mirren |
| 63' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Aberdeen |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 81' | ⚽ | Curtis Main · St Mirren |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Declan Gallagher · St Mirren |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 365.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1458.81 | 1483.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.20 | -1.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| league points | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 59.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 30.00 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -2.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 27.87 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -2.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |