← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Napier, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 41% | 34% | 2.39 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 31% | 37% | 3.11 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hibernian −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.94 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 15' | ⚽ | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jonny Hayes · Aberdeen |
| 44' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Aberdeen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Thody Elie Youan · Hibernian |
| 61' | 🟨 | Liam Scales · Aberdeen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 73' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Hibernian |
| 78' | 🟨 | Duk · Aberdeen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kevin Nisbet · Hibernian |
| 86' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| Liam Scales · Aberdeen |
| 86' | 🟥 | Liam Scales · Aberdeen |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 90' | ⚽ | William Fish · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 272.00 | 361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1475.69 | 1472.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.35 | -29.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| league points | 27.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 9.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |