← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Wed, Jan 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Clancy, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 72% | 76% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.53 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 10% | 10% | 10.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock +1.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Rangers +1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +5% |
| Under | 45% | 40% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Christopher Stokes · Kilmarnock |
| 19' | 🟨 | Alan Power · Kilmarnock |
| 23' | ⚽ | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 35' | 🟨 | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
| 36' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ryan Kent · Rangers |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ryan Kent · Rangers |
| 59' | 🟨 | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
| 59' | 🟥 | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
| 72' | ⚽ | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 85' | ⚽ | Joe Wright · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 382.00 |
| 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 4.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1419.09 | 1825.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.18 | 12.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 1.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 20.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 11.21 | 10.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.77 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.88 |
| state index | -0.36 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |