← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Dec 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Napier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 56% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 4.00 | fair |
| Livingston win | 19% | 18% | 5.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian −0.75 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Livingston −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟥 | Jason Holt · Livingston |
| 17' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Hibernian |
| 17' | 🟨 | Andrew Shinnie · Livingston |
| 24' | 🟨 | Scott Pittman · Livingston |
| 33' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Hibernian |
| 35' | ⚽ | Christopher Cadden · Hibernian |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kyle Magennis · Hibernian |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jackson Longridge · Livingston |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kyle Magennis · Hibernian |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nicky Devlin · Livingston |
| 85' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Joe Newell · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 237.00 | 783.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1466.34 | 1510.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.79 | 12.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.83 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 59.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 32.20 |
| rest days | 8.75 | 2.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -2.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -1.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |