← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Dec 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Steven
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 44% | 40% | 2.16 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.70 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Dundee United +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Steven Fletcher · Dundee United |
| 41' | ⚽ | Michael Smith · Hearts |
| 45' | 🟨 | Scott McMann · Dundee United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andy Halliday · Hearts |
| 47' | ⚽ | Dylan Levitt · Dundee United |
| 59' | 🟨 | Kieran Freeman · Dundee United |
| 83' | 🟨 | Robert Snodgrass · Hearts |
| 84' | 🟨 | Tony Watt · Dundee United |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mark Birighitti · Dundee United |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
| coach days | 145.00 | 1149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1446.85 | 1533.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.93 | 4.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 29.26 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |