← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Dec 24, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 36% | 33% | 2.70 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 34% | 36% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Aberdeen +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 53% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Matthew Kennedy · Aberdeen |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · St Mirren |
| 35' | 🟥 | Anthony Stewart · Aberdeen |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Kelle Roos · St Mirren |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark O'Hara · St Mirren |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Aberdeen |
| 67' | 🟨 | Keanu Baccus · St Mirren |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ryan Strain · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Gogić · St Mirren |
| 90' | ⚽ | Greg Kiltie · St Mirren |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| coach days | 326.00 | 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1469.11 | 1506.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.83 | 6.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 21.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 3.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.01 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 25.18 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.76 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |