← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Wed, Nov 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Euan Anderson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 26% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| St Johnstone −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 42% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Graham Carey · St Johnstone |
| 40' | 🟨 | Graham Carey · St Johnstone |
| 42' | ⚽ | Greg Kiltie · St Mirren |
| 54' | 🟨 | Charles Dunne · St Mirren |
| 61' | 🟨 | Trevor Carson · St Mirren |
| 63' | 🟨 | Melker Hallberg · St Johnstone |
| 63' | 🟥 | Alex Mitchell · St Johnstone |
| 81' | ⚽ | Mark O'Hara · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟨 | Scott Tanser · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mark O'Hara · St Mirren |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ryan McGowan · St Johnstone |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicky Clark · St Johnstone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 281.00 | 5487.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -7.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1461.40 | 1460.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.66 | 30.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 3.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | -2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.61 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |